轉貼:12 Questions on Markets and the Economy
11 06 20081) Economy: Is the US in a mild recession, or, will we successfully avoid one? How weak is consumer spending, and how much further can it fall? Might the US be entering a significant and prolonged downturn?
2) Inflation: How much inflation is in the system? How high are inflation expectations? Under normal circumstances, inflation moderates as an economy cools. Why has that not yet happened in the United States? Will it happen in the coming year?
3) Fed cuts: Are any further Fed cuts coming? Has the market accepted the possibility that more Fed cuts are unlikely? Are equities priced for potential Fed increases as a response to inflation?
4) Market technicals: Markets have been very choppy, with advances narrow, low volume affairs. Will the March lows holds? How fraught with danger are current market conditions? How significant is the failure of major indices at the 200 day moving average? The NASDAQ is holding up much better than the S&P or Dow — Why?
5) Employment: How strong or weak is the job market in the United States? Why has job creation been so weak this cycle? Why are new unemployment claims still below 400,000? Why have we not seen layoffs in the multi-100,000 range? Is employment significantly affecting sentiment polls? What are the odds of a robust jobs recovery in the next 12-24 months?
6) Housing: Has the real estate market bottomed yet? How much further will home prices fall? When will inventory of real estate get worked down? When will home sales turnaround? When will real estate stop negatively impacting the macro economy?
7) Credit crunch: How much damage has been done to the financial sector? How much damage will be done in the future to the banks and brokers? Are we in the ninth inning, as some have posited, of the credit crunch? Or, do we still have all way to go, to work away through financial issues?
Tax rebate checks: Are they stimulating the economy? Are they merely paying for food and gas price increases?
9) Politics: What is the most likely outcome of the United States elections in November? How likely is a significant increase in the razor thin Democratic majority in the Senate? In the House? How likely is a full Democratic sweep including the presidency? What are the economic and market repercussions of such an event?
10) Sentiment: Why is sentiment so negative? Is it the war, employment, gas prices — or something else altogether? Has sentiment reached an extreme level where it can be considered a contrary indicator?
11) Data analysis: There’s been lots of chatter (elsewhere as well as here) about the reporting of economic statistics by the United States government. How accurate is the data that we get out of the BLS, BEA, Census Department, Federal Reserve, and other official outlets? Have we reached the point where this data has lost significance? What does this do to the credibility of these governmental agencies? Is it possible that this data can be improved?
12) Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan: The economy seems to have pushed the Middle Eastern war(s) off the front pages of the newspapers. How good or bad are things progressing in Afghanistan? How about the war in Iraq? There is a continued buzz about a late summer or early fall assault by Israel against the nuclear facilities in Iran (with tacit US approval). How would this affect the price of oil? The global economy? The elections in the United States?
回應 : Leave a Comment »
類別 : 投資
隨筆
6 06 2008好多時..都想寫一下自己對社會現象的睇法觀點.但係…一個懶字..令到好多文章都閣置左落來.
今日想講一下香港既奴隸教育制度。香港既情況..以我所見..已經好嚴重,多數既人已經徹底咁被奴隸教育制度影響,以為自己畢業後,理所當然係打死一世工,返工後呢,進修..進修無錯,但係佢地係為份工..即係自己老闆黎進修。呢個出發點就完全係錯晒!
諗起有一日,我病左..拿了sickleave在家,msn 既時候..有個朋友問我..點解響屋企,我答喉嚨好痛,所以攞sickleave,佢竟然話我不是…因為我唔係用把口黎做野,應該照常返工咁話,從此事可見從少開始的奴隸訓練禍害之深。
又有個朋友..廿幾歲仔..同我講話要搏殺..佢份工係好辛苦的,要輪夜班既藍領工作,以我所見,咁樣因為份工,連進修時間都無埋,不斷咁消耗自己既身體,好似更加放棄左自己更上一層樓的機會…咁樣搏殺係唔可以長遠地增加自己競爭力的,當你老時,社會就會放棄你,咁又何苦呢。
到最近,我留意倒好多人話買樓(這裡指未財務自由的人),又追捧下D偽豪宅咁,呢D行為…簡直係笑死我…原來佢地除左同自己老闆打工外,重想同地產商、銀行打埋工…套用我在討論區看到的形容詞(為笨8-1中的笨6+1)xDDD
講真..香港D樓邊值呢個價,計我話SARS時樓價先至為合理。
D小市民就係咁,賺左D血汗錢,又比返D商家…消費再消費,手機…換完一部又一部…以為自己係享受緊…生左仔女,又一個循環既開始,哈哈!!
咁..你可能會問..咁點消除市民既奴性呢?我個人見解,唔須要主動幫助佢地。資本主義社會下,當然要有人做社會的小齒輪黎推動經濟發展,D齒輪磨損左,自然要有新既奴隸黎補上,無佢地,資本家點樣生存呢?
講咁多野,其實我都係社會巨輪中既其中一片小齒輪,但係我正努力地0係我未被磨損前脫黎呢個行列,睇緊既你?會點選擇呢?
回應 : 2 意見»
類別 : 口痕痕
同我講